The eighth edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 reveals that the decarbonisation of the maritime industry will incur substantial costs, with container shipping facing the highest increases. The report, which provides an updated outlook on regulations, drivers, technologies, and fuels necessary for reducing maritime carbon emissions, presents four scenarios exploring various conditions that could influence the adoption of specific fuels and technologies by 2050.

The forecast highlights that the costs associated with decarbonising shipping are set to rise dramatically. According to the scenarios, the cost increases per unit of transport work are projected to be between 69% and 75% for bulk carriers, 70% to 86% for tankers, and a staggering 91% to 112% for container vessels.

“Our latest analyses show that decarbonizing shipping could double the cost of transporting goods by containers”, said Eirik Ovrum, Principal Consultant and Lead Author of Maritime Forecast to 2050. “Ultimately, the rising costs of seaborne transport will need to be passed down the value chain and the market is already seeing trends towards shifting these costs to end-users. To remain competitive, shipowners must develop and execute strategic fleet management plans.”

The report also emphasises that reducing energy losses is the most effective method for cutting emissions in the global fleet. Implementing operational and technical energy efficiency measures could reduce fuel consumption by between 4% and 16% by 2030. Achieving a 16% reduction in energy consumption across the world fleet would save 40 million tonnes of fuel and 120 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, a reduction equivalent to operating 55,000 of the smallest ships or 2,500 of the largest ships using carbon-neutral fuel.

The container shipping sector is still favouring LNG as an alternative fuel choice with 171 ships on order, followed by the car carrier segment with 157 ships on order. The containership segment saw a considerable increase in methanol-fuelled ship orders last year. This trend is still ongoing, with 173 methanol-capable containerships on order, DNV said.

“We have observed that several container operators are mulling over retrofits, with several shipowners considering the methanol conversion route for their ships. Maersk is embarking on a programme to convert 11 of its 15,000 TEU ships to dual-fuel methanol operation, while the Seaspan and Hapag-Lloyd fleets have agreed to a delivery of 15 MAN B&WS90 retrofit solutions to dual-fuel ME-LGIM, with an option for 45 additional deliveries. COSCO and CMA CGM are also reporting on ongoing methanol conversion programmes for their containership fleets,” the report said.

DNV estimates that in order to reach IMO’s 2030 decarbonization goals shipping will need between 7 and 48 Mtoe of carbon-neutral fuels. However, with the global cross-sector production of carbon-neutral fuels expected to reach only between 44 and 63 Mtoe by 2030, it will be near impossible for shipping to secure its required share. As regulations like the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime start to impose costs on emissions, shipowners and managers must therefore explore every option to reduce fuel consumption.

The report highlights onboard carbon capture (OCC) as a potentially effective method for decarbonisation, as it allows for the continued use of conventional fuels and technologies. However, significant development of CO2 handling infrastructure is necessary to support this approach. Additionally, the report emphasises solutions like shore power and batteries, as shore power can cut the 7% of total energy consumption that ships use in ports by replacing onboard fossil fuel-generated electricity.

“While we are currently witnessing a slowdown of decarbonization in shipping, we are entering an era of unprecedented technological exploration that will drive progress forward. With carbon-neutral fuels in short supply, smart decision-making and strategic investments today are crucial to lay the foundations for future emissions reductions. Prioritizing energy efficiency, leveraging technological solutions, and embracing digitalization are key steps towards reducing the extra cost burden and achieving our decarbonization goals,” Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, DNV Maritime CEO, said.

The eighth edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 reveals that the decarbonisation of the maritime industry will incur substantial costs, with container shipping facing the highest increases. The report, which provides an updated outlook on regulations, drivers, technologies, and fuels necessary for reducing maritime carbon emissions, presents four scenarios exploring various conditions that could influence the adoption of specific fuels and technologies by 2050.

The forecast highlights that the costs associated with decarbonising shipping are set to rise dramatically. According to the scenarios, the cost increases per unit of transport work are projected to be between 69% and 75% for bulk carriers, 70% to 86% for tankers, and a staggering 91% to 112% for container vessels.

“Our latest analyses show that decarbonizing shipping could double the cost of transporting goods by containers”, said Eirik Ovrum, Principal Consultant and Lead Author of Maritime Forecast to 2050. “Ultimately, the rising costs of seaborne transport will need to be passed down the value chain and the market is already seeing trends towards shifting these costs to end-users. To remain competitive, shipowners must develop and execute strategic fleet management plans.”

The report also emphasises that reducing energy losses is the most effective method for cutting emissions in the global fleet. Implementing operational and technical energy efficiency measures could reduce fuel consumption by between 4% and 16% by 2030. Achieving a 16% reduction in energy consumption across the world fleet would save 40 million tonnes of fuel and 120 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, a reduction equivalent to operating 55,000 of the smallest ships or 2,500 of the largest ships using carbon-neutral fuel.

The container shipping sector is still favouring LNG as an alternative fuel choice with 171 ships on order, followed by the car carrier segment with 157 ships on order. The containership segment saw a considerable increase in methanol-fuelled ship orders last year. This trend is still ongoing, with 173 methanol-capable containerships on order, DNV said.

“We have observed that several container operators are mulling over retrofits, with several shipowners considering the methanol conversion route for their ships. Maersk is embarking on a programme to convert 11 of its 15,000 TEU ships to dual-fuel methanol operation, while the Seaspan and Hapag-Lloyd fleets have agreed to a delivery of 15 MAN B&WS90 retrofit solutions to dual-fuel ME-LGIM, with an option for 45 additional deliveries. COSCO and CMA CGM are also reporting on ongoing methanol conversion programmes for their containership fleets,” the report said.

DNV estimates that in order to reach IMO’s 2030 decarbonization goals shipping will need between 7 and 48 Mtoe of carbon-neutral fuels. However, with the global cross-sector production of carbon-neutral fuels expected to reach only between 44 and 63 Mtoe by 2030, it will be near impossible for shipping to secure its required share. As regulations like the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime start to impose costs on emissions, shipowners and managers must therefore explore every option to reduce fuel consumption.

The report highlights onboard carbon capture (OCC) as a potentially effective method for decarbonisation, as it allows for the continued use of conventional fuels and technologies. However, significant development of CO2 handling infrastructure is necessary to support this approach. Additionally, the report emphasises solutions like shore power and batteries, as shore power can cut the 7% of total energy consumption that ships use in ports by replacing onboard fossil fuel-generated electricity.

“While we are currently witnessing a slowdown of decarbonization in shipping, we are entering an era of unprecedented technological exploration that will drive progress forward. With carbon-neutral fuels in short supply, smart decision-making and strategic investments today are crucial to lay the foundations for future emissions reductions. Prioritizing energy efficiency, leveraging technological solutions, and embracing digitalization are key steps towards reducing the extra cost burden and achieving our decarbonization goals,” Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, DNV Maritime CEO, said.