UNCTAD: International trade to rebound in 2024
NewsInternational trade is poised for a turnaround in 2024 following consecutive quarters of decline.
Global maritime trade increased by 2.4% in 2023, with a forecasted 2% growth for 2024 and 2.4% for 2025-2029, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The volume of global maritime trade rose by 2.4% in 2023 compared to the previous year, despite geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, as reported in the latest findings from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Global conflicts have resulted in longer shipping routes.
UNCTAD anticipates that the volume of sea trade will grow by 2% in 2024, with container trade increasing by 3.5%. For the period from 2025 to 2029, the organisation forecasts an average growth of 2.4% in total seaborne trade and a 2.7% rise in containerised trade.
According to UNCTAD, this growth is driven by robust demand for bulk commodities, including iron ore, coal, grain, and oil. The anticipated increase is further bolstered by broader economic trends, such as milder inflation and rising LNG exports from Russia and the United States, among others.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Houthi attacks on shipping, and drought conditions in the Panama Canal have disrupted maritime trade. By the end of 2023, merchant vessels began avoiding the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait off the coast of Yemen and the Suez Canal, opting instead for the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. Typically, around 10% of global maritime trade transits through the Suez Canal, but trade volume through the canal had already decreased by 42% by early 2024.
The shift to longer routes results in extended delivery times and increased costs. The average distance covered per tonne of cargo has risen from 4,675 miles in 2000 to 5,186 miles in 2024, while the tonnes per mile figure increased by 4.2% in 2023.
The UN report identifies climate change and geopolitical tensions as the most significant risks to global maritime trade. It expresses particular concern about the vulnerability of maritime bottlenecks, such as the Panama and Suez canals. The report notes that, due to limited alternative routes, disruptions at these bottlenecks adversely affect supply chains, with significant implications for food security, energy supplies, and global trade. UNCTAD highlights that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) face especially serious consequences.
Read the full Review of Maritime Transport 2024 report HERE.
Source: Flows.be
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