Speaking last week at a public hearing at the European Parliament on the Impact on Land Transport of Brexit, Daniel Kern, Senior Manager Trade Policy Affairs at the IRU, said: “Our sector needs legal certainty and predictability. It should not be forgotten that our industry has many SMEs. Excessive bureaucracy, which might be the result of Brexit negotiations, would have a negative impact on the industry's efficiency and competitiveness.”

The IRU recently released a Position Paper on Brexit aimed at finding the best solutions to ensure seamless trade, road freight and logistics operations. The paper looks at the various post-Brexit customs and market access scenarios and provides recommendations for each situation. A smooth transition period is also regarded as essential, as businesses and public authorities must be given sufficient time to adjust to the post-Brexit arrangements.

Daniel Kern continued: “For a successful outcome of the Brexit negotiations, it is of utmost importance that road transport movements between the UK and the EU remain seamless. In order to achieve this, we need a sufficient transition period that safeguards the status quo of road transport movements until a new business friendly agreement between the UK and the EU is implemented.”

Probably no-one would argue with this, but it should be remembered that when the UK RHA canvassed members on whether they favoured or opposed Brexit, the majority were in favour of leaving the EU, whereas other professional transport associations such as CILT and BIFA reported majorities in favour of staying in.

The RHA wants free access to remain as regards UK trade with the EU, but is demanding an end to cabotage, so EU hauliers would no longer be able to pick up domestic backhauls on the way back to Europe.

This and other issues regarding the impact of Brexit on accompanied ro-ro trades were looked at in detail in the September 2017 edition of WorldCargo News. Based on conversations at a UKTiE seminar held at the House of Lords with Chris Sturman, CEO of the UK Food Storage & Distribution Federation, we reported in that article that of the 14,000 trucks a day coming through Dover Calais via Eurotunnel (now called "Getlink") and the ferries, 15% are likely to be refrigerated which equates to 2,100 vehicles a day bringing time-sensitive loads of temperature-controlled goods, with others transporting in ambient grocery and non-temperature controlled foodstuffs.

In a new FSDF position paper, Mr Sturman states: "Changing the customs arrangements for these vehicles in any way, whilst ensuring a frictionless border, will prove difficult, no matter what solutions the politicians agree to. Around 90%, or 12,600 (1,890 refrigerated) of these vehicles are operated by non-UK businesses which we may or may not want to check, but any mistakes or delays will jeopardise the UK food supply."

He adds that the new Customs Declaration Service, currently in development as the replacement for the 20-year old CHIEF, needs to be working correctly and right first time “out of the box” in January 2019, ready to deal with a capacity of 300 + million transactions" (compared to just 60M actual transactions yearly today).

"Looking at the Government’s history of introducing new digital systems, one can’t help feel a little concerned about the proposed new CDS and the delivery of a system that works and streamlines the declaration process for all parties, here in the UK and in the EU.

"When you take into account that a one hour delay at a port or terminal can cost £15,000 to road haulage alone, the prospect of any delays coming into the UK could be catastrophic for our food supply, or at the very least, expensive – and this will be passed down the chain, significantly increasing the cost of any imported food.

"To help our ports keep moving, we need to ensure that customs and non-tariff barriers are removed to facilitate movement of goods and the government’s border controls are rationalised to avoid unnecessary costs and delays. The same applies to the land border within Ireland. Again, a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be dangerously damaging for both sides."

Sturman reiterates, however, that UK negotiators have more negotiating power than perhaps they realise, because of trade imbalances – and one can see from the lead-in to this post that the IRU is increasingly concerned and is trying to alert politicians to the dangers.

When it comes to Germany, he points out, the UK imports £25B more goods than its exports; the UK imports £37B worth of goods and services more than it exports to both the Netherlands and France; while Italy, Belgium and Spain all enjoy a £20B trade surplus with the UK."

Put simply, as regards road haulage, non-UK hauliers have the most to lose, as they predominate in UK o/d accompanied ro-ro and Getlink traffic.

Last week, P&O hailed the success of its new Zeebrugge-Hull lo-lo service. Best known for its own accompanied and unaccompanied ro-pax services, P&O is clearly seeking to cater for more shifts from accompanied ro-ro and Getlink to more resilient supply chains (ie with inbuilt buffers that logically comply with potential delays from customs, phytosanitary inspections and so on).

In a new development, DSV Air & Sea in the UK has appointed Lars Jokumsen to a newly-created post – National Short Sea Product Manager. In a press release, Mr Jokumsen is quoted: Our new short sea service offers customers a viable alternative to road transport, reducing their carbon footprint, while transporting their raw materials and stock in a timely and cost-effective manner.”

DSV says is offering its customers two solutions: a priority service that focuses on shipping goods with a reliable lead time; and an economy service with a focus on pricing.

At the time of writing this post, DSV has not replied to our request for more information, but it seems clear that DSV wants to reduce its own (DSV Road) and its customers' exposures to hard borders post-Brexit. Unaccompanied lo-lo and ro-ro is not going to be trouble-free in a hard Brexit scenario, but clearly it will be less stressed.

We would expect more use of shortsea lo-lo, since it would by and large deliver more shipping capacity than ro-ro and requires less terminal space.