There was also talk of a possible new order taking shape as Maersk Line, CMA CGM and MSC finalise details of their planned P3 alliance, which is due to become operational in Q2 2014, and other operators look at how best they should respond to the development.

Mike Garratt, managing director of MDS Transmodal, in a presentation entitled The worldwide economic perspective for the container industry, said: “There is a sense of inevitability in this industry and that over the next year a new order is going to come about.”

He suggested that this would be played out on both a geographical and organisational basis, with emerging markets, especially the Middle East/South Asia, experiencing the fastest growth, and trades out of the Far East to Europe and North America remaining slow.

Garratt stressed: “Carriers not investing in big ships to reduce their unit costs risk their very survival as smaller tonnage is losing its operational viability rapidly. It is noteworthy how large orders outside of the main alliances have picked up with China Shipping Container Lines and UASC confirming 18,000 TEU+ ship series this year.”

He added: “Levels of oversupply will rise further with TEU slot capacity expected to increase at least 23% by 2015 and demand rising by only 17%. This will keep freight rates down and make it difficult for carriers to earn profits.”

All observers at the conference agreed that superpost-Panamax ships would account for a much larger slice of the fleet deployed and that the new Panama Canal would have a significant impact on service structures and particularly the trading opportunities for existing Panamax tonnage.

Sarah Bennett, an analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said: “The current Panamax fleet accounts for 20% of slot capacity in service and it is under immense pressure as its trading opportunities decline. While intra-regional services will offer it some scope. I would expect more of these vessels to be scrapped. Smaller ships are also under threat as the level of cascading rises and in the past year we have seen younger ships sold for scrap, including a 13-year old 1,700 TEU vessel.”

She added: “By 2015, 5,000-7,500 TEU post-Panamax tonnage will hold the majority of capacity on trades to/from the Middle East/South Asia, Oceania and the Caribbean basin and be the workhorses of the liner companies in these markets.